Howard Goldstein and Dwight Davis are two of the sharpest guys I have ever met when it comes to Theories in this field. I talk to them daily and have the utmost respect for them.

Dwight will be contributing a chapter in the Money Management section and I am imploring Howard to do the same. He is holding out for money but I'll get him to accept a bag of figs or some other form delicacy.

Dwight was easy. He has already agreed to an article if I would wash his car. I told him I did he couldn't tell the difference. But he can tell the difference in a good handicapper and a bad one, since he is an excellent one.

Dwight agrees with me in how hard it is to win 60% and gave me a formula which I think you'll like.

Let's say you bet on 100 games and want to win 60. For any of you who have bet before, you'll understand how many games are won and lost by a stroke of luck, whether good or bad, depending on which side you’re on.

It could be a fumble, error, passed ball, lucky bounce, wild pitch, interception, missed dunk, half court buzzer beater, technical foul, dropped pass, or any number of lucky or unlucky bounces. It's gonna happen.

Dwight figures 50% of all games are decided by luck, either good or bad.

So of the 100 games you bet on, 50 of them are decided by luck. Since half the time you'll have good luck and win, then half the time you'll have bad luck and lose.

That means of the 50 games decided by luck, you've chalked up 25 wins, just by lucky breaks or good luck.

But that means of the remaining 50 games, you have to properly handicap 35 wins. That means perfectly picking the winner 35 out of 50 times by super handicapping. You have to be right 70% of the time in your remaining 50 games to get you to 60 wins out of 100.

I've been picking games for my service for 9 years and bounce around 60 63% every year. If I told you I consistently pick 70% winners every week I'd be lying through my teeth. I can't do it and I doubt anyone can.

Sure, you read the papers and some guy blasts in big type, "I'll give you 70% winners." I laugh at this guy's out and out lying, but cry over the dorks who believe him and send him money to boot.

Let's just analyze this guy's claim of picking 70% winners. Dwight Davis worked this out for me because I couldn't count to five, even if you spotted me the 1, 2 and 3. But his arithmetic made me take notice.

Dwight still maintains 50% of all games are decided by luck, and I buy that. You probably do too, cased on the happenings I pointed out.

OK. So with the 25 games won with good luck, this guy's gotta do a bang up job of handicapping the remaining 50. To reach 70 winners, he would have to correctly handicap 45 winners out of those 50 games.

Come on, you show me who can constantly pick 45 winners out of 50 games (90%) and I'll show you Jesus Christ posing as a handicapper.

I won't even acknowledge the jerks who claim 75% and 80% because you can see what a jerk anybody would have to be to project that figure.

Go back over these examples and see where Dwight has come up with a tremendously logical reason to doubt any fool who claims to pick 70% winners. It's almost impossible. That's why 60% is not only realistic but logical and attainable, even though you may THINK it's a low amount to shoot for.

Dwight Davis just thanked me for washing his car. I hope he doesn't want a new set of glasses for his Money Management article.